FA Cup results and our prediction record

We have published 371 FA Cup predictions since November 2022, and every one of them has been graded against the final score.

Across those matches, on the match result it was right 1 times out of 6, too few to put a rate on; on the double chance it was right 6 times out of 11, too few to put a rate on.

Every concluded FA Cup match we predicted is listed below, with the pick we made beforehand and what actually happened.

Our record in FA Cup

Every prediction below was published before the match kicked off and graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.

Market Predictions Correct Hit rate
Match result 6 1 1 of 6 too few to quote a rate
Double chance 11 6 6 of 11 too few to quote a rate
Over or under 2.5 goals 5 2 2 of 5 too few to quote a rate
Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line 9 8 8 of 9 too few to quote a rate
Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line 1 0 0 of 1 too few to quote a rate

The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.

How the model reads FA Cup

FA Cup matches in this archive average 3.19 goals, against 2.69 across the 57 competitions we cover. 63% of them finish with three goals or more, and the model goes over 2.5 in 52% of the matches it calls.

The home side wins 45% of FA Cup matches here and draws 16%. Our model picks the home side in 42% of them, which tracks the competition closely.

Every concluded FA Cup match we predicted

The 50 most recent of 371, newest first.

Date Match Score Our call Goals call Safer line
Chelsea v Manchester City 0:1 Home winat 4.75 Miss Over 2.5at 1.73 Miss Over 1.5at 1.20 Miss
Chelsea v Leeds 1:0 Home winat 2.10 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss Over 1.5at 1.25 Miss
Manchester City v Southampton 2:1 Away winat 10.00 Miss Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit
Southampton v Arsenal 2:1 Away winat 1.28 Miss Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Chelsea v Port Vale 7:0 Home winat 1.06 Hit Over 2.5at 1.22 Hit Over 1.5at 1.05 Hit
Manchester City v Liverpool 4:0 Away winat 3.90 Miss Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Leeds v Norwich 3:0 Away winat 6.50 Miss Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit Over 1.5at 1.18 Hit
Port Vale v Sunderland 1:0 Away winat 1.42 Miss Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
Fulham v Southampton 0:1 Away winat 5.75 Hit Over 2.5at 1.57 Miss Over 1.5at 1.17 Miss
Newcastle v Manchester City 1:3 Home winat 3.30 Miss Over 2.5at 1.57 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Mansfield Town v Arsenal 1:2 Away winat 1.08 Hit Over 2.5at 1.30 Hit Over 1.5at 1.08 Hit
Wolves v Liverpool 1:3 Away winat 1.48 Hit Over 2.5at 1.57 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Macclesfield v Brentford 0:1 Away winat 1.20 Hit Under 2.5at 2.75 Hit Under 3.5at 1.73 Hit
Arsenal v Wigan 4:0 Home winat 1.06 Hit Over 2.5at 1.25 Hit Over 1.5at 1.06 Hit
Stoke City v Fulham 1:2 Drawat 3.75 Miss Under 2.5at 2.00 Miss Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit
Oxford United v Sunderland 0:1 Away winat 1.70 Hit Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit
Grimsby v Wolves 0:1 Home winat 5.50 Miss Under 2.5at 2.20 Hit Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit
Birmingham v Leeds 1:1 Home winat 3.25 Miss Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Liverpool v Brighton 3:0 Home winat 1.55 Hit Over 2.5at 1.50 Hit Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit
Aston Villa v Newcastle 1:3 Home winat 2.25 Miss Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit Over 1.5at 1.18 Hit
Manchester City v Salford City 2:0 Drawat 26.00 Miss Over 2.5at 1.14 Miss Over 1.5at 1.03 Hit
Southampton v Leicester 2:1 Home winat 1.73 Hit Under 2.5at 2.20 Miss Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit
Burnley v Mansfield Town 1:2 Away winat 8.00 Hit Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit
Norwich v West Brom 3:1 Home winat 2.20 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Burton Albion v West Ham 0:1 Drawat 4.75 Miss Over 2.5at 1.57 Miss Over 1.5at 1.17 Miss
Wrexham v Ipswich 1:0 Away winat 2.05 Miss Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss Over 1.5at 1.33 Miss
Hull City v Chelsea 0:4 Away winat 1.30 Hit Over 2.5at 1.57 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Salford City v Swindon Town 3:2 Drawat 3.60 Miss Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit
Liverpool v Barnsley 4:1 Home winat 1.14 Hit Under 2.5at 3.75 Miss Under 3.5at 2.00 Miss
Manchester United v Brighton 1:2 Home winat 1.85 Miss Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
West Ham v QPR 2:1 Away winat 4.50 Miss Under 2.5at 2.10 Miss Under 3.5at 1.40 Hit
Swansea v West Brom 2:2 Away winat 2.70 Miss Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss
Hull City v Blackburn 0:0 Home winat 2.20 Miss Under 2.5at 2.00 Hit Under 3.5at 1.40 Hit
Norwich v Walsall 5:1 Drawat 4.10 Miss Under 2.5at 2.00 Miss Under 3.5at 1.36 Miss
Sheffield Utd v Mansfield Town 3:4 Home winat 1.40 Miss Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit Over 1.5at 1.18 Hit
Portsmouth v Arsenal 1:4 Away winat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Derby v Leeds 1:3 Away winat 1.75 Hit Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss Under 3.5at 1.28 Miss
Charlton v Chelsea 1:5 Drawat 5.00 Miss Under 2.5at 2.38 Miss Under 3.5at 1.53 Miss
Tottenham v Aston Villa 1:2 Drawat 3.50 Miss Over 2.5at 1.91 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Cambridge United v Birmingham 2:3 Drawat 3.75 Miss Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss Under 3.5at 1.28 Miss
Bristol City v Watford 5:1 Away winat 3.10 Miss Under 2.5at 1.91 Miss Under 3.5at 1.33 Miss
Fulham v Middlesbrough 3:1 Away winat 5.50 Miss Under 2.5at 2.20 Miss Under 3.5at 1.50 Miss
Stoke City v Coventry 1:0 Drawat 3.50 Miss Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford 0:2 Away winat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.53 Miss Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Ipswich v Blackpool 2:1 Home winat 1.30 Hit Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Doncaster v Southampton 2:3 Away winat 1.80 Hit Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit Over 1.5at 1.18 Hit
Burnley v Millwall 5:1 Away winat 4.50 Miss Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Newcastle v Bournemouth 3:3 Home winat 1.75 Miss Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit Over 1.5at 1.18 Hit
Manchester City v Exeter City 10:1 Home winat 1.07 Hit Under 2.5at 4.50 Miss Under 3.5at 2.62 Miss
Macclesfield v Crystal Palace 2:1 Drawat 7.00 Miss Under 2.5at 2.75 Miss Under 3.5at 1.67 Hit

The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.

FA Cup teams

Each of these has its own record, match by match.

Where the predictions for upcoming matches are

This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including FA Cup, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.