Premier League (England) results and our prediction record
We have published 2,320 Premier League predictions since September 2020, and every one of them has been graded against the final score.
Across those matches, on the match result it was right 54 times out of 76, which is 71%; on the double chance it was right 163 times out of 233, which is 70%.
Every concluded Premier League match we predicted is listed below, with the pick we made beforehand and what actually happened.
Our record in Premier League
Every prediction below was published before the match kicked off and graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.
| Market | Predictions | Correct | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 76 | 54 | 71.1% |
| Double chance | 233 | 163 | 70.0% |
| Over or under 2.5 goals | 233 | 134 | 57.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line | 20 | 17 | 85.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line | 69 | 42 | 60.9% |
The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.
How the model reads Premier League
Premier League matches in this archive average 2.90 goals, against 2.69 across the 57 competitions we cover. 56% of them finish with three goals or more, and the model goes over 2.5 in 66% of the matches it calls.
The home side wins 43% of Premier League matches here and draws 23%. Our model picks the home side in 40% of them, which tracks the competition closely. Of the three markets we publish, match result is where the model reads Premier League best, at 71% from 76 picks, and over or under 2.5 goals is where it reads it worst, at 58% from 233.
Read at a line that is easier to clear, the same goals call lands far more often: our 20 calls of over 2.5 in Premier League also cleared 1.5 goals 85% of the time, and our 69 calls of under 2.5 also stayed under 3.5 61% of the time. Those are not extra predictions. They are the one call counted against a softer question, which is why they sit roughly twenty points above the 2.5 line itself.
Every concluded Premier League match we predicted
The 50 most recent of 2,320, newest first.
| Date | Match | Score | Our call | Goals call | Safer line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham v Manchester United | 1:1 | Away winat 2.00 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.57 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Bournemouth v Liverpool | 0:1 | Drawat 3.80 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.50 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.14 Miss | |
| Leeds v Crystal Palace | 0:0 | Home winat 1.70 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.73 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.22 Miss | |
| Manchester City v Sunderland | 5:3 | Home winat 1.28 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.38 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.57 Miss | |
| Nottingham Forest v Coventry | 0:1 | Home winat 1.57 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Newcastle v Hull City | 2:1 | Home winat 1.60 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Everton v Ipswich | 1:0 | Home winat 1.75 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.10 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit | |
| Brighton v Arsenal | 3:0 | Away winat 1.67 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Tottenham v Aston Villa | 2:3 | Away winat 3.75 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.00 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.40 Miss | |
| Brentford v Chelsea | 3:0 | Drawat 3.75 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.50 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit | |
| Leeds v Newcastle | 4:1 | Away winat 3.00 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Manchester United v Manchester City | 0:1 | Away winat 2.10 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.53 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.14 Miss | |
| Coventry v Brighton | 0:5 | Away winat 1.91 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Sunderland v Arsenal | 0:2 | Away winat 1.48 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.73 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Tottenham v Everton | 0:0 | Away winat 3.60 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Miss | |
| Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest | 1:2 | Away winat 3.20 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.30 Hit | |
| Crystal Palace v Ipswich | 2:3 | Away winat 3.90 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Chelsea v Hull City | 2:2 | Home winat 1.22 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit | |
| Bournemouth v Brentford | 2:2 | Drawat 3.60 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.30 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.57 Miss | |
| Liverpool v Fulham | 0:0 | Home winat 1.42 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.44 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.14 Miss | |
| Arsenal v Chelsea | 2:1 | Home winat 1.70 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Everton v Manchester United | 2:2 | Away winat 2.10 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.50 Miss | |
| Hull City v Aston Villa | 0:0 | Away winat 1.85 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Brentford v Sunderland | 1:1 | Home winat 1.62 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Manchester City v Coventry | 1:0 | Home winat 1.18 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.36 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.10 Miss | |
| Fulham v Crystal Palace | 2:3 | Home winat 2.30 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.36 Miss | |
| Nottingham Forest v Tottenham | 0:0 | Home winat 2.40 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Miss | |
| Brighton v Leeds | 1:1 | Home winat 1.95 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Newcastle v Bournemouth | 2:2 | Home winat 2.10 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Ipswich v Liverpool | 0:2 | Away winat 1.50 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.44 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit | |
| Aston Villa v Arsenal | 0:1 | Away winat 1.48 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Manchester United v Ipswich | 5:2 | Home winat 1.40 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.38 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.53 Miss | |
| Sunderland v Fulham | 1:0 | Away winat 3.10 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.00 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.33 Miss | |
| Chelsea v Brighton | 4:3 | Away winat 4.10 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Leeds v Brentford | 1:1 | Away winat 2.70 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Tottenham v Newcastle | 0:2 | Away winat 2.90 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.62 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Bournemouth v Everton | 1:1 | Drawat 3.50 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Coventry v Hull City | 0:1 | Home winat 1.90 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 2:2 | Home winat 1.50 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.62 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 1:4 | Drawat 4.00 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Fulham v Chelsea | 2:3 | Away winat 1.85 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Newcastle v Liverpool | 2:2 | Away winat 1.90 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.50 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit | |
| Brighton v Aston Villa | 4:0 | Drawat 3.60 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.44 Miss | |
| Manchester City v Bournemouth | 2:1 | Home winat 1.48 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.44 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit | |
| Brentford v Tottenham | 3:0 | Home winat 2.40 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.20 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit | |
| Ipswich v Sunderland | 2:1 | Drawat 3.30 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds | 0:1 | Home winat 2.30 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.30 Miss | |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | 2:0 | Drawat 3.50 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Hull City v Manchester United | 2:0 | Away winat 1.36 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.20 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.50 Hit | |
| Arsenal v Coventry | 3:0 | Home winat 1.18 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit |
The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.
Premier League teams
Each of these has its own record, match by match.
Other competitions in England
Where the predictions for upcoming matches are
This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including Premier League, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.