UEFA Nations League results and our prediction record

We have published 460 UEFA Nations League predictions since October 2021, and every one of them has been graded against the final score.

Across those matches, on the match result it was right 228 times out of 460, which is 50%; on the double chance it was right 345 times out of 460, which is 75%.

Every concluded UEFA Nations League match we predicted is listed below, with the pick we made beforehand and what actually happened.

Our record in UEFA Nations League

Every prediction below was published before the match kicked off and graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.

Market Predictions Correct Hit rate
Match result 460 228 49.6%
Double chance 460 345 75.0%
Over or under 2.5 goals 460 249 54.1%
Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line 224 172 76.8%
Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line 236 186 78.8%

The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.

How the model reads UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations League matches in this archive average 2.62 goals, against 2.70 across the 57 competitions we cover. 50% of them finish with three goals or more, and the model goes over 2.5 in 49% of the matches it calls.

The home side wins 42% of UEFA Nations League matches here and draws 24%. Our model picks the home side in 41% of them, which tracks the competition closely. Of the three markets we publish, double chance is where the model reads UEFA Nations League best, at 75% from 460 picks, and match result is where it reads it worst, at 50% from 460.

Read at a line that is easier to clear, the same goals call lands far more often: our 224 calls of over 2.5 in UEFA Nations League also cleared 1.5 goals 77% of the time, and our 236 calls of under 2.5 also stayed under 3.5 79% of the time. Those are not extra predictions. They are the one call counted against a softer question, which is why they sit roughly twenty points above the 2.5 line itself.

Every concluded UEFA Nations League match we predicted

The 50 most recent of 460, newest first.

Date Match Score Result call Double chance Goals call Safer line
Scotland v Slovenia 1:2 Drawat 3.60 Miss Home or drawat 1.18 Miss Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Switzerland v FYR Macedonia 3:0 Home winat 1.08 Hit Home or drawat 1.01 Hit Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit
Luxembourg v Bulgaria 0:2 Drawat 3.30 Miss Home or drawat 1.30 Miss Under 2.5at 1.53 Hit Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit
Estonia v Iceland 0:0 Away winat 1.62 Miss Draw or awayat 1.12 Hit Under 2.5at 1.90 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
Moldova v Slovakia 0:4 Away winat 1.42 Hit Draw or awayat 1.07 Hit Under 2.5at 2.00 Miss Under 3.5at 1.36 Miss
Belarus v Finland 1:0 Away winat 1.95 Miss Draw or awayat 1.22 Miss Under 2.5at 1.62 Hit Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit
Albania v San Marino 2:1 Home winat 1.03 Hit Home or draw Hit Over 2.5at 1.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.05 Hit
England v Czech Republic 3:0 Home winat 1.11 Hit Home or drawat 1.02 Hit Over 2.5at 1.36 Hit Over 1.5at 1.10 Hit
Croatia v Spain 1:2 Away winat 1.27 Hit Draw or awayat 1.07 Hit Over 2.5at 1.44 Hit Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit
Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands 2:2 Drawat 3.10 Hit Home or drawat 1.33 Hit Over 2.5at 2.50 Hit Over 1.5at 1.44 Hit
France v Belgium 4:1 Home winat 1.53 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 1.48 Hit Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Italy v Turkey 3:1 Home winat 1.44 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 1.48 Hit Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Ukraine v Hungary 1:2 Away winat 3.00 Hit Draw or awayat 1.53 Hit Under 2.5at 1.70 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Northern Ireland v Georgia 0:0 Home winat 2.35 Miss Home or drawat 1.36 Hit Under 2.5at 1.50 Hit Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland 1:0 Away winat 2.35 Miss Draw or awayat 1.40 Miss Under 2.5at 1.90 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
Romania v Sweden 0:1 Home winat 4.33 Miss Home or drawat 2.20 Miss Over 2.5at 1.67 Miss Over 1.5at 1.20 Miss
Montenegro v Armenia 0:0 Home winat 1.45 Miss Home or drawat 1.12 Hit Over 2.5at 1.73 Miss Over 1.5at 1.22 Miss
Cyprus v Latvia 2:1 Home winat 1.70 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Under 2.5at 1.70 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Rep. Of Ireland v Israel 1:1 Home winat 2.10 Miss Home or drawat 1.30 Hit Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit
Wales v Denmark 0:1 Drawat 3.60 Miss Home or drawat 1.80 Miss Over 2.5at 1.70 Miss Over 1.5at 1.20 Miss
Netherlands v Serbia 2:1 Home winat 1.17 Hit Home or drawat 1.02 Hit Over 2.5at 1.36 Hit Over 1.5at 1.10 Hit
Greece v Germany 0:0 Away winat 1.83 Miss Draw or awayat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.65 Miss Over 1.5at 1.18 Miss
Portugal v Norway 2:1 Drawat 4.20 Miss Home or drawat 1.17 Hit Over 2.5at 1.48 Hit Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit
Kosovo v Austria 1:1 Drawat 3.40 Hit Home or drawat 1.70 Hit Under 2.5at 1.95 Hit Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit
Malta v andorra 1:0 Home winat 1.67 Hit Home or drawat 1.11 Hit Under 2.5at 1.50 Hit Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit
Azerbaijan v Lithuania 1:0 Away winat 3.25 Miss Draw or awayat 1.57 Miss Under 2.5at 1.44 Hit Under 3.5at 1.14 Hit
FYR Macedonia v Scotland 0:2 Drawat 3.00 Miss Draw or away Hit Under 2.5 Hit Under 3.5 Hit
Switzerland v Slovenia 2:1 Home winat 1.30 Hit Home or drawat 1.05 Hit Under 2.5at 1.90 Miss Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
Spain v Czech Republic 3:1 Home winat 1.07 Hit Home or drawat 1.01 Hit Over 2.5at 1.30 Hit Over 1.5at 1.08 Hit
Croatia v England 0:7 Away winat 1.83 Hit Draw or awayat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit
Belarus v San Marino 4:0 Home winat 1.08 Hit Home or drawat 1.00 Hit Under 2.5at 2.75 Miss Under 3.5at 1.73 Miss
Estonia v Luxembourg 1:0 Away winat 2.40 Miss Draw or awayat 1.36 Miss Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Iceland v Bulgaria 3:0 Home winat 1.42 Hit Home or drawat 1.07 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Finland v Albania 2:1 Drawat 3.20 Miss Draw or awayat 1.53 Miss Under 2.5at 1.60 Miss Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
France v Italy 1:1 Away winat 6.50 Miss Draw or awayat 2.75 Hit Over 2.5at 1.44 Miss Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit
Belgium v Turkey 3:0 Home winat 1.53 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 1.44 Hit Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit
Hungary v Georgia 1:0 Home winat 2.05 Hit Home or drawat 1.28 Hit Under 2.5at 1.70 Hit Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Ukraine v Northern Ireland 0:3 Drawat 3.30 Miss Home or drawat 1.20 Miss Under 2.5at 1.53 Miss Under 3.5at 1.18 Hit
Poland v Romania 6:0 Home winat 1.53 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden 1:1 Drawat 3.50 Hit Draw or awayat 1.40 Hit Over 2.5at 1.70 Miss Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit
Faroe Islands v Slovakia 1:1 Away winat 1.62 Miss Draw or awayat 1.12 Hit Under 2.5at 1.62 Hit Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Cyprus v Armenia 2:0 Home winat 2.25 Hit Home or drawat 1.36 Hit Under 2.5at 1.73 Hit Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Latvia v Montenegro 1:2 Away winat 1.75 Hit Draw or awayat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Kazakhstan v Moldova 1:2 Drawat 3.50 Miss Home or drawat 1.14 Miss Under 2.5at 1.70 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Germany v Serbia 2:0 Home winat 1.22 Hit Home or drawat 1.05 Hit Over 2.5at 1.40 Miss Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit
Greece v Netherlands 2:2 Drawat 3.70 Hit Draw or awayat 1.28 Hit Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit
Denmark v Portugal 2:4 Home winat 3.50 Miss Home or drawat 1.80 Miss Over 2.5at 1.70 Hit Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit
Wales v Norway 2:1 Home winat 6.00 Hit Home or drawat 2.50 Hit Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Rep. Of Ireland v Austria 2:2 Drawat 3.30 Hit Draw or awayat 1.28 Hit Under 2.5at 1.65 Miss Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss
Israel v Kosovo 0:0 Away winat 2.20 Miss Draw or awayat 1.36 Hit Under 2.5at 1.85 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit

Double chance backs two of the three results, the two our model rated most likely, so it lands more often than the result call and pays less. The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.

UEFA Nations League teams

Each of these has its own record, match by match.

Other competitions in World

All competitions we keep a record for

Where the predictions for upcoming matches are

This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including UEFA Nations League, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.

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