World Cup results and our prediction record

We have published 159 World Cup predictions since November 2022, and every one of them has been graded against the final score.

Across those matches, on the match result it was right 4 times out of 10, too few to put a rate on; on the double chance it was right 4 times out of 4, too few to put a rate on.

Every concluded World Cup match we predicted is listed below, with the pick we made beforehand and what actually happened.

Our record in World Cup

Every prediction below was published before the match kicked off and graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.

Market Predictions Correct Hit rate
Match result 10 4 4 of 10 too few to quote a rate
Double chance 4 4 4 of 4 too few to quote a rate
Over or under 2.5 goals 3 2 2 of 3 too few to quote a rate
Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line 7 5 5 of 7 too few to quote a rate
Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line 3 2 2 of 3 too few to quote a rate

The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.

How the model reads World Cup

World Cup matches in this archive average 2.84 goals, against 2.69 across the 57 competitions we cover. 52% of them finish with three goals or more, and the model goes over 2.5 in 51% of the matches it calls.

The home side wins 46% of World Cup matches here and draws 24%. Our model picks the home side in 49% of them, which tracks the competition closely.

Every concluded World Cup match we predicted

The 50 most recent of 159, newest first.

Date Match Score Result call Double chance Goals call Safer line
Spain v Argentina 1:0 Home winat 2.25 Hit Home or awayat 1.36 Hit Over 2.5at 2.30 Miss Over 1.5at 1.40 Miss
France v England 4:6 Home winat 1.91 Miss Home or drawat 1.25 Miss Over 2.5at 1.44 Hit Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit
England v Argentina 1:2 Away winat 3.00 Hit Draw or awayat 1.44 Hit Over 2.5at 2.30 Hit Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit
France v Spain 0:2 Home winat 2.30 Miss Home or awayat 1.33 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit
Argentina v Switzerland 3:1 Home winat 1.67 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit
Norway v England 1:2 Away winat 1.85 Hit Draw or awayat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Spain v Belgium 2:1 Away winat 5.25 Miss Home or awayat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
France v Morocco 2:0 Home winat 1.57 Hit Home or drawat 1.11 Hit Over 2.5at 2.00 Miss Over 1.5at 1.30 Hit
Switzerland v Colombia 0:0 Drawat 3.00 Hit Draw or awayat 1.30 Hit Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit
Argentina v Egypt 3:2 Home winat 1.38 Hit Home or drawat 1.08 Hit Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss Under 3.5at 1.28 Miss
USA v Belgium 1:4 Away winat 2.75 Hit Draw or awayat 1.50 Hit Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Portugal v Spain 0:1 Away winat 1.91 Hit Draw or awayat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss Over 1.5at 1.25 Miss
Mexico v England 2:3 Away winat 2.40 Hit Draw or awayat 1.36 Hit Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss
Brazil v Norway 1:2 Home winat 1.80 Miss Home or drawat 1.20 Miss Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Paraguay v France 0:1 Away winat 1.17 Hit Draw or awayat 1.02 Hit Over 2.5at 1.62 Miss Over 1.5at 1.20 Miss
Canada v Morocco 0:3 Away winat 1.75 Hit Draw or awayat 1.17 Hit Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit
Colombia v Ghana 1:0 Home winat 1.42 Hit Home or drawat 1.07 Hit Under 2.5at 1.73 Hit Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit
Argentina v Cape Verde Islands 3:2 Home winat 1.14 Hit Home or drawat 1.02 Hit Under 2.5at 2.20 Miss Under 3.5at 1.44 Miss
Australia v Egypt 1:1 Drawat 2.90 Hit Draw or awayat 1.33 Hit Under 2.5at 1.44 Hit Under 3.5at 1.14 Hit
Switzerland v Algeria 2:0 Home winat 2.00 Hit Home or drawat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Portugal v Croatia 2:1 Away winat 5.00 Miss Draw or awayat 2.05 Miss Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Spain v Austria 3:0 Home winat 1.33 Hit Home or drawat 1.08 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit
USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina 2:0 Home winat 1.40 Hit Home or drawat 1.10 Hit Under 2.5at 2.10 Hit Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit
Belgium v Senegal 3:2 Home winat 2.20 Hit Home or drawat 1.28 Hit Over 2.5at 2.10 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
England v Congo DR 2:1 Home winat 1.27 Hit Home or drawat 1.05 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Hit Over 1.5at 1.30 Hit
Mexico v Ecuador 2:0 Drawat 2.90 Miss Home or drawat 1.25 Hit Under 2.5at 1.44 Hit Under 3.5at 1.14 Hit
France v Sweden 3:0 Home winat 1.27 Hit Home or drawat 1.05 Hit Over 2.5at 1.50 Hit Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Ivory Coast v Norway 1:2 Away winat 2.00 Hit Draw or awayat 1.25 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Netherlands v Morocco 1:1 Drawat 3.00 Hit Draw or awayat 1.62 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Germany v Paraguay 1:1 Home winat 1.36 Miss Home or drawat 1.08 Hit Over 2.5at 1.73 Miss Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Brazil v Japan 2:1 Away winat 5.25 Miss Draw or awayat 2.10 Miss Over 2.5at 2.00 Hit Over 1.5at 1.30 Hit
South Africa v Canada 0:1 Drawat 3.50 Miss Home or drawat 2.10 Miss Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit
Algeria v Austria 3:3 Away winat 2.90 Miss Draw or awayat 1.22 Hit Under 2.5at 1.30 Miss Under 3.5at 1.11 Miss
Jordan v Argentina 1:3 Drawat 9.00 Miss Draw or awayat 1.03 Hit Under 2.5at 2.62 Miss Under 3.5at 1.62 Miss
Colombia v Portugal 0:0 Away winat 1.95 Miss Draw or awayat 1.28 Hit Under 2.5at 2.00 Hit Under 3.5at 1.40 Hit
Congo DR v Uzbekistan 3:1 Drawat 4.20 Miss Home or drawat 1.17 Hit Over 2.5at 2.00 Hit Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit
Croatia v Ghana 2:1 Home winat 1.75 Hit Home or drawat 1.14 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit
Panama v England 0:2 Away winat 1.14 Hit Draw or awayat 1.02 Hit Over 2.5at 1.44 Miss Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit
Egypt v Iran 1:1 Drawat 2.62 Hit Draw or awayat 1.53 Hit Over 2.5at 3.00 Miss Over 1.5at 1.57 Hit
New Zealand v Belgium 1:5 Away winat 1.18 Hit Draw or awayat 1.03 Hit Under 2.5at 3.40 Miss Under 3.5at 1.91 Miss
Cape Verde Islands v Saudi Arabia 0:0 Drawat 3.30 Hit Draw or awayat 1.44 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.36 Miss
Uruguay v Spain 0:1 Away winat 1.62 Hit Draw or awayat 1.12 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.36 Miss
Norway v France 1:4 Away winat 1.62 Hit Home or awayat 1.18 Hit Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Senegal v Iraq 5:0 Home winat 1.22 Hit Home or drawat 1.05 Hit Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit
Paraguay v Australia 0:0 Drawat 2.30 Hit Draw or awayat 1.40 Hit Under 2.5at 1.36 Hit Under 3.5at 1.12 Hit
Turkey v USA 3:2 Home winat 3.60 Hit Home or drawat 1.91 Hit Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Tunisia v Netherlands 1:3 Away winat 1.06 Hit Draw or awayat 1.00 Hit Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit
Japan v Sweden 1:1 Home winat 1.91 Miss Home or drawat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit
Ecuador v Germany 2:1 Away winat 1.83 Miss Draw or awayat 1.28 Miss Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
South Africa v South Korea 1:0 Away winat 1.62 Miss Home or awayat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 2.00 Miss Over 1.5at 1.33 Miss

Double chance backs two of the three results, the two our model rated most likely, so it lands more often than the result call and pays less. The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.

World Cup teams

Each of these has its own record, match by match.

Other competitions in World

All competitions we keep a record for

Where the predictions for upcoming matches are

This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including World Cup, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.

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