Italy results and our prediction record
Italy have played 58 matches that we predicted before kickoff, the most recent of them in UEFA Nations League in October 2026.
We called 34 of those 58 correctly on the match result, which is 59%.
Every one of those matches is below, with the pick we made and the final score.
Our record on Italy
Across every Italy match we called before kickoff, graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.
| Market | Predictions | Correct | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 58 | 34 | 58.6% |
| Double chance | 58 | 49 | 84.5% |
| Over or under 2.5 goals | 58 | 31 | 53.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line | 38 | 33 | 86.8% |
| Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line | 20 | 17 | 85.0% |
The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.
How the record changes
One record over 58 matches hides as much as it shows. The same call is a different proposition at home and away, and different again in a league that has seen this side a hundred times against a cup they play four times a year.
With Italy at home we were right 63% of the time from 30 matches, and away from home 54% from 28, so this is a side the model finds harder to read away from home.
Italy appear in 4 of the competitions we cover. The table above splits the record across them, with the sample size beside each one, since several are too small to put a rate on.
At home and away
| Where | Match result | Double chance | Over or under 2.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All matches | 59% from 58 predictions | 85% from 58 predictions | 53% from 58 predictions | 87% from 38 predictions | 85% from 20 predictions |
| At home | 63% from 30 predictions | 83% from 30 predictions | 53% from 30 predictions | 17 of 18 too few to quote a rate | 10 of 12 too few to quote a rate |
| Away from home | 54% from 28 predictions | 86% from 28 predictions | 54% from 28 predictions | 80% from 20 predictions | 7 of 8 too few to quote a rate |
By competition
| Competition | Match result | Double chance | Over or under 2.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Nations League | 46% from 22 predictions | 73% from 22 predictions | 55% from 22 predictions | 13 of 15 too few to quote a rate | 5 of 7 too few to quote a rate |
| World Cup: Qualification Europe | 11 of 18 too few to quote a rate | 17 of 18 too few to quote a rate | 11 of 18 too few to quote a rate | 13 of 14 too few to quote a rate | 4 of 4 too few to quote a rate |
| Euro Championship | 9 of 11 too few to quote a rate | 10 of 11 too few to quote a rate | 4 of 11 too few to quote a rate | 4 of 6 too few to quote a rate | 5 of 5 too few to quote a rate |
| Euro Championship: Qualification | 4 of 7 too few to quote a rate | 6 of 7 too few to quote a rate | 4 of 7 too few to quote a rate | 3 of 3 too few to quote a rate | 3 of 4 too few to quote a rate |
Each figure carries the number of predictions behind it. The last two markets are the same goals call read where it is easier to clear, so they cover different halves of the same matches.
Italy results we predicted
The 50 most recent of 58, newest first.
| Date | Match | Competition | Score | Result call | Double chance | Goals call | Safer line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy v Turkey | UEFA Nations League | 3:1 | Home winat 1.44 Hit | Home or drawat 1.14 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.48 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit | |
| France v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1:1 | Away winat 6.50 Miss | Draw or awayat 2.75 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.44 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit | |
| Turkey v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1:4 | Away winat 2.62 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.44 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.75 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Italy v Belgium | UEFA Nations League | 0:2 | Home winat 2.20 Miss | Home or drawat 1.36 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Italy v Northern Ireland | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 2:0 | Home winat 1.28 Hit | Home or drawat 1.05 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Italy v Norway | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 1:4 | Away winat 3.50 Hit | Home or awayat 1.28 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.70 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Moldova v Italy | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 0:2 | Away winat 1.04 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.01 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.33 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.10 Hit | |
| Italy v Israel | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 3:0 | Home winat 1.18 Hit | Home or drawat 1.03 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit | |
| Estonia v Italy | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 1:3 | Away winat 1.07 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.01 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.36 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.09 Hit | |
| Israel v Italy | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 4:5 | Home winat 7.00 Miss | Home or awayat 1.18 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Italy v Estonia | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 5:0 | Home winat 1.06 Hit | Home or drawat 1.01 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.28 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.08 Hit | |
| Italy v Moldova | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 2:0 | Drawat 11.00 Miss | Home or drawat 1.01 Hit | Under 2.5at 3.40 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.91 Hit | |
| Norway v Italy | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 3:0 | Home winat 2.80 Hit | Home or drawat 1.50 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.85 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Germany v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 3:3 | Home winat 1.73 Miss | Home or drawat 1.20 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Italy v Germany | UEFA Nations League | 1:2 | Away winat 2.70 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.44 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.10 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Italy v France | UEFA Nations League | 1:3 | Drawat 3.20 Miss | Home or drawat 1.44 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.05 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Belgium v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 0:1 | Away winat 2.75 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.50 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.95 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Miss | |
| Italy v Israel | UEFA Nations League | 4:1 | Home winat 1.20 Hit | Home or drawat 1.04 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.40 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.53 Miss | |
| Italy v Belgium | UEFA Nations League | 2:2 | Home winat 1.95 Miss | Home or drawat 1.22 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.95 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Israel v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1:2 | Away winat 1.28 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.06 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.60 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.18 Hit | |
| France v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 1:3 | Drawat 4.00 Miss | Draw or awayat 2.20 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.85 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.30 Miss | |
| Switzerland v Italy | Euro Championship | 2:0 | Drawat 2.90 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.30 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.50 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Croatia v Italy | Euro Championship | 1:1 | Away winat 2.30 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.36 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Spain v Italy | Euro Championship | 1:0 | Home winat 2.10 Hit | Home or awayat 1.33 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.36 Miss | |
| Italy v Albania | Euro Championship | 2:1 | Home winat 1.38 Hit | Home or drawat 1.07 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Ukraine v Italy | Euro Championship: Qualification | 0:0 | Away winat 1.90 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.22 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.29 Hit | |
| Italy v FYR Macedonia | Euro Championship: Qualification | 5:2 | Home winat 1.14 Hit | Home or drawat 1.02 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.40 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.53 Miss | |
| England v Italy | Euro Championship: Qualification | 3:1 | Home winat 1.65 Hit | Home or drawat 1.14 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.15 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Italy v Malta | Euro Championship: Qualification | 4:0 | Home winat 1.03 Hit | Home or drawat 1.00 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.33 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.08 Hit | |
| Italy v Ukraine | Euro Championship: Qualification | 2:1 | Drawat 3.80 Miss | Home or drawat 1.10 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.85 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.30 Hit | |
| FYR Macedonia v Italy | Euro Championship: Qualification | 1:1 | Drawat 5.25 Hit | Home or drawat 3.50 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.75 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Netherlands v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 2:3 | Home winat 2.25 Miss | Home or drawat 1.36 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Spain v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 2:1 | Home winat 2.25 Hit | Home or drawat 1.30 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Malta v Italy | Euro Championship: Qualification | 0:2 | Drawat 10.00 Miss | Home or drawat 6.50 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.70 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.67 Hit | |
| Hungary v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 0:2 | Drawat 3.50 Miss | Home or drawat 1.80 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.70 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Italy v England | UEFA Nations League | 1:0 | Away winat 2.50 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.40 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.62 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Germany v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 5:2 | Home winat 1.70 Hit | Home or drawat 1.18 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.90 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| England v Italy | UEFA Nations League | 0:0 | Home winat 1.85 Miss | Home or drawat 1.22 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.36 Miss | |
| Italy v Hungary | UEFA Nations League | 2:1 | Drawat 4.00 Miss | Draw or awayat 2.75 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.30 Hit | |
| Italy v Germany | UEFA Nations League | 1:1 | Away winat 2.37 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.40 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.90 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Italy v FYR Macedonia | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 0:1 | Home winat 1.17 Miss | Home or drawat 1.01 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.30 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.48 Hit | |
| Northern Ireland v Italy | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 0:0 | Away winat 1.25 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.05 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.10 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit | |
| Italy v Switzerland | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 1:1 | Away winat 5.50 Miss | Draw or awayat 2.20 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Italy v Belgium | UEFA Nations League | 2:1 | Home winat 2.20 Hit | Home or awayat 1.33 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.98 Miss | Under 3.5 Hit | |
| Italy v Spain | UEFA Nations League | 1:2 | Away winat 3.75 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.61 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.30 Hit | Over 1.5 Hit | |
| Italy v Lithuania | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 5:0 | Home winat 1.07 Hit | Home or draw Hit | Over 2.5at 1.33 Hit | Over 1.5 Hit | |
| Switzerland v Italy | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 0:0 | Away winat 1.95 Miss | Draw or awayat 1.23 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.05 Miss | Over 1.5 Miss | |
| Italy v Bulgaria | World Cup: Qualification Europe | 1:1 | Home winat 1.12 Miss | Home or draw Hit | Under 2.5at 2.48 Hit | Under 3.5 Hit | |
| Italy v England | Euro Championship | 1:1 | Drawat 3.00 Hit | Home or drawat 1.44 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.53 Hit | Under 3.5 Hit | |
| Italy v Spain | Euro Championship | 1:1 | Drawat 3.25 Hit | Draw or awayat 1.56 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.30 Miss | Over 1.5 Hit |
Double chance backs two of the three results, the two our model rated most likely, so it lands more often than the result call and pays less. The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.
Italy in UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League is where Italy played most recently. We have graded 460 predictions in that competition, and its full record sits beside every other World competition we cover.
UEFA Nations League results and our prediction record
Other UEFA Nations League teams
Where the predictions for upcoming matches are
This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including Italy, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.