Derby results and our prediction record
Derby have played 291 matches that we predicted before kickoff, the most recent of them in Championship in September 2026.
We called 116 of those 291 correctly on the match result, which is 40%.
Every one of those matches is below, with the pick we made and the final score.
Our record on Derby
Across every Derby match we called before kickoff, graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.
| Market | Predictions | Correct | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 291 | 116 | 39.9% |
| Double chance | 291 | 202 | 69.4% |
| Over or under 2.5 goals | 291 | 146 | 50.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line | 102 | 74 | 72.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line | 189 | 148 | 78.3% |
The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.
How the record changes
One record over 291 matches hides as much as it shows. The same call is a different proposition at home and away, and different again in a league that has seen this side a hundred times against a cup they play four times a year.
With Derby at home we were right 42% of the time from 146 matches, and away from home 38% from 145, so this is a side the model finds harder to read away from home.
It also depends on who they are playing. We call Derby correctly 53% of the time in the League One across 92 matches, and 33% in the Championship across 192.
At home and away
| Where | Match result | Double chance | Over or under 2.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All matches | 40% from 291 predictions | 69% from 291 predictions | 50% from 291 predictions | 73% from 102 predictions | 78% from 189 predictions |
| At home | 42% from 146 predictions | 72% from 146 predictions | 56% from 146 predictions | 81% from 52 predictions | 84% from 94 predictions |
| Away from home | 38% from 145 predictions | 67% from 145 predictions | 45% from 145 predictions | 64% from 50 predictions | 73% from 95 predictions |
By competition
| Competition | Match result | Double chance | Over or under 2.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 33% from 192 predictions | 65% from 192 predictions | 50% from 192 predictions | 73% from 55 predictions | 80% from 137 predictions |
| League One | 53% from 92 predictions | 79% from 92 predictions | 52% from 92 predictions | 70% from 43 predictions | 76% from 49 predictions |
| FA Cup | 3 of 7 too few to quote a rate | 5 of 7 too few to quote a rate | 2 of 7 too few to quote a rate | 4 of 4 too few to quote a rate | 1 of 3 too few to quote a rate |
Each figure carries the number of predictions behind it. The last two markets are the same goals call read where it is easier to clear, so they cover different halves of the same matches.
Derby results we predicted
The 50 most recent of 291, newest first.
| Date | Match | Competition | Score | Our call | Goals call | Safer line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley v Derby | Championship | 1:1 | Home winat 1.80 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Derby v Birmingham | Championship | 1:2 | Away winat 2.15 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.10 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Derby v West Brom | Championship | 0:1 | Away winat 2.35 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| West Ham v Derby | Championship | 3:0 | Home winat 1.36 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Portsmouth v Derby | Championship | 0:2 | Home winat 2.25 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.00 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Derby v Swansea | Championship | 0:3 | Drawat 3.25 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Derby v Cardiff | Championship | 2:2 | Away winat 3.75 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.00 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Charlton v Derby | Championship | 2:1 | Away winat 2.70 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Derby v Sheffield Utd | Championship | 1:2 | Drawat 3.80 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.30 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.50 Hit | |
| QPR v Derby | Championship | 2:3 | Drawat 3.50 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Norwich v Derby | Championship | 2:1 | Home winat 2.00 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Derby v Oxford United | Championship | 1:0 | Home winat 1.90 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Southampton v Derby | Championship | 2:1 | Home winat 1.75 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Derby v Stoke City | Championship | 2:0 | Home winat 1.85 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.30 Hit | |
| Coventry v Derby | Championship | 3:2 | Drawat 4.00 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.44 Miss | |
| Derby v Birmingham | Championship | 1:0 | Away winat 2.60 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Portsmouth v Derby | Championship | 0:1 | Home winat 2.20 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.40 Miss | |
| Millwall v Derby | Championship | 1:0 | Home winat 1.95 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.33 Miss | |
| Derby v Sheffield Wednesday | Championship | 2:1 | Home winat 1.25 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Derby v Blackburn | Championship | 3:1 | Drawat 3.30 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Hull City v Derby | Championship | 4:2 | Away winat 3.00 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Watford v Derby | Championship | 2:0 | Drawat 3.30 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Derby v Swansea | Championship | 2:0 | Away winat 3.25 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit | |
| Derby v Ipswich | Championship | 1:2 | Away winat 2.14 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.15 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Bristol City v Derby | Championship | 0:5 | Home winat 2.00 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Derby v West Brom | Championship | 1:1 | Away winat 2.90 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Charlton v Derby | Championship | 1:2 | Drawat 3.00 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.53 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Preston v Derby | Championship | 0:1 | Home winat 2.25 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Derby v Leeds | FA Cup | 1:3 | Away winat 1.75 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.28 Miss | |
| Derby v Wrexham | Championship | 1:2 | Drawat 3.25 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Derby v Middlesbrough | Championship | 1:0 | Away winat 2.30 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.36 Miss | |
| Leicester v Derby | Championship | 2:1 | Away winat 3.50 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Birmingham v Derby | Championship | 1:1 | Away winat 4.33 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Derby v Portsmouth | Championship | 1:1 | Home winat 2.00 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit | |
| Sheffield Wednesday v Derby | Championship | 0:3 | Away winat 2.30 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.10 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Derby v Millwall | Championship | 1:1 | Away winat 3.00 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.50 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.50 Hit | |
| Derby v Leicester | Championship | 1:3 | Home winat 2.75 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss | |
| Middlesbrough v Derby | Championship | 2:1 | Home winat 1.75 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Swansea v Derby | Championship | 1:2 | Drawat 3.10 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.57 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Derby v Watford | Championship | 2:3 | Drawat 3.20 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.30 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.44 Hit | |
| Blackburn v Derby | Championship | 1:2 | Drawat 3.30 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.57 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Derby v Hull City | Championship | 2:1 | Drawat 3.25 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Sheffield Utd v Derby | Championship | 1:3 | Home winat 1.80 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Derby v QPR | Championship | 1:0 | Away winat 2.75 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.73 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Derby v Norwich | Championship | 1:0 | Drawat 3.25 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Oxford United v Derby | Championship | 1:0 | Drawat 3.10 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.50 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.50 Miss | |
| Derby v Southampton | Championship | 1:1 | Away winat 2.10 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Derby v Charlton | Championship | 1:1 | Away winat 2.70 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.50 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Wrexham v Derby | Championship | 1:1 | Home winat 2.10 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.38 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.44 Hit | |
| Derby v Preston | Championship | 0:1 | Away winat 3.10 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.50 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit |
The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.
Derby in Championship
Championship is where Derby played most recently. We have graded 3,422 predictions in that competition, and its full record sits beside every other England competition we cover.
Championship results and our prediction record
Other Championship teams
Where the predictions for upcoming matches are
This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including Derby, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.