Derby results and our prediction record

Derby have played 296 matches that we predicted before kickoff, the most recent of them in Championship in October 2026.

We called 118 of those 296 correctly on the match result, which is 40%, against 40% across Championship as a whole.

Every one of those matches is below, with the pick we made and the final score.

Our record on Derby

Across every Derby match we called before kickoff, graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.

Market Predictions Correct Hit rate
Match result 296 118 39.9%
Double chance 296 206 69.6%
Over or under 2.5 goals 296 148 50.0%
Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line 103 74 71.8%
Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line 193 150 77.7%

The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.

How the record changes

One record over 296 matches hides as much as it shows. The same call is a different proposition at home and away, and different again in a league that has seen this side a hundred times against a cup they play four times a year.

With Derby at home we were right 42% of the time from 148 matches, and away from home 38% from 148, so this is a side the model finds harder to read away from home.

It also depends on who they are playing. We call Derby correctly 53% of the time in the League One across 92 matches, and 34% in the Championship across 197.

At home and away

Where Match result Double chance Over or under 2.5 goals Over 1.5 goals Under 3.5 goals
All matches 40% from 296 predictions 70% from 296 predictions 50% from 296 predictions 72% from 103 predictions 78% from 193 predictions
At home 42% from 148 predictions 72% from 148 predictions 55% from 148 predictions 79% from 53 predictions 84% from 95 predictions
Away from home 38% from 148 predictions 67% from 148 predictions 45% from 148 predictions 64% from 50 predictions 71% from 98 predictions

By competition

Competition Match result Double chance Over or under 2.5 goals Over 1.5 goals Under 3.5 goals
Championship 34% from 197 predictions 65% from 197 predictions 50% from 197 predictions 71% from 56 predictions 79% from 141 predictions
League One 53% from 92 predictions 79% from 92 predictions 52% from 92 predictions 70% from 43 predictions 76% from 49 predictions
FA Cup 3 of 7 too few to quote a rate 5 of 7 too few to quote a rate 2 of 7 too few to quote a rate 4 of 4 too few to quote a rate 1 of 3 too few to quote a rate

Each figure carries the number of predictions behind it. The last two markets are the same goals call read where it is easier to clear, so they cover different halves of the same matches.

Derby results we predicted

The 50 most recent of 296, newest first.

Date Match Competition Score Result call Double chance Goals call Safer line
Millwall v Derby Championship 4:1 Away winat 5.00 Miss Draw or awayat 2.15 Miss Under 2.5at 2.00 Miss Under 3.5at 1.36 Miss
Sheffield Utd v Derby Championship 1:1 Away winat 4.33 Miss Draw or awayat 1.95 Hit Under 2.5at 2.00 Hit Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit
Derby v Stoke City Championship 0:1 Away winat 2.35 Hit Draw or awayat 1.40 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss Over 1.5at 1.28 Miss
QPR v Derby Championship 4:1 Home winat 1.70 Hit Home or drawat 1.18 Hit Under 2.5at 2.00 Miss Under 3.5at 1.40 Miss
Derby v Wrexham Championship 1:1 Away winat 2.62 Miss Draw or awayat 1.40 Hit Under 2.5at 1.80 Hit Under 3.5at 1.30 Hit
Burnley v Derby Championship 1:1 Home winat 1.80 Miss Home or drawat 1.20 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss Over 1.5at 1.28 Hit
Derby v Birmingham Championship 1:2 Away winat 2.15 Hit Draw or awayat 1.30 Hit Over 2.5at 2.10 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Derby v West Brom Championship 0:1 Away winat 2.35 Hit Draw or awayat 1.36 Hit Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
West Ham v Derby Championship 3:0 Home winat 1.36 Hit Home or drawat 1.10 Hit Over 2.5at 1.73 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Portsmouth v Derby Championship 0:2 Home winat 2.25 Miss Home or drawat 1.33 Miss Over 2.5at 2.00 Miss Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit
Derby v Swansea Championship 0:3 Drawat 3.25 Miss Draw or awayat 1.62 Hit Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit
Derby v Cardiff Championship 2:2 Away winat 3.75 Miss Draw or awayat 1.80 Hit Over 2.5at 2.00 Hit Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit
Charlton v Derby Championship 2:1 Away winat 2.70 Miss Draw or awayat 1.44 Miss Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Derby v Sheffield Utd Championship 1:2 Drawat 3.80 Miss Draw or awayat 1.91 Hit Under 2.5at 2.30 Miss Under 3.5at 1.50 Hit
QPR v Derby Championship 2:3 Drawat 3.50 Miss Draw or awayat 1.40 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Norwich v Derby Championship 2:1 Home winat 2.00 Hit Home or drawat 1.28 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Derby v Oxford United Championship 1:0 Home winat 1.90 Hit Home or drawat 1.22 Hit Under 2.5at 1.80 Hit Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit
Southampton v Derby Championship 2:1 Home winat 1.75 Hit Home or drawat 1.20 Hit Over 2.5at 1.80 Hit Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit
Derby v Stoke City Championship 2:0 Home winat 1.85 Hit Home or drawat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 1.91 Miss Over 1.5at 1.30 Hit
Coventry v Derby Championship 3:2 Drawat 4.00 Miss Home or drawat 1.12 Hit Under 2.5at 2.10 Miss Under 3.5at 1.44 Miss
Derby v Birmingham Championship 1:0 Away winat 2.60 Miss Draw or awayat 1.40 Miss Under 2.5at 1.91 Hit Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit
Portsmouth v Derby Championship 0:1 Home winat 2.20 Miss Home or drawat 1.30 Miss Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.40 Miss
Millwall v Derby Championship 1:0 Home winat 1.95 Hit Home or drawat 1.25 Hit Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss Over 1.5at 1.33 Miss
Derby v Sheffield Wednesday Championship 2:1 Home winat 1.25 Hit Home or drawat 1.05 Hit Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit
Derby v Blackburn Championship 3:1 Drawat 3.30 Miss Draw or awayat 1.67 Miss Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss
Hull City v Derby Championship 4:2 Away winat 3.00 Miss Draw or awayat 1.53 Miss Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss
Watford v Derby Championship 2:0 Drawat 3.30 Miss Draw or awayat 1.67 Miss Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Derby v Swansea Championship 2:0 Away winat 3.25 Miss Draw or awayat 1.62 Miss Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit
Derby v Ipswich Championship 1:2 Away winat 2.14 Hit Draw or awayat 1.26 Hit Over 2.5at 2.15 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Bristol City v Derby Championship 0:5 Home winat 2.00 Miss Home or drawat 1.25 Miss Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss
Derby v West Brom Championship 1:1 Away winat 2.90 Miss Home or awayat 1.36 Miss Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Charlton v Derby Championship 1:2 Drawat 3.00 Miss Home or drawat 1.40 Miss Under 2.5at 1.53 Miss Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Preston v Derby Championship 0:1 Home winat 2.25 Miss Home or drawat 1.30 Miss Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Derby v Leeds FA Cup 1:3 Away winat 1.75 Hit Draw or awayat 1.18 Hit Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss Under 3.5at 1.28 Miss
Derby v Wrexham Championship 1:2 Drawat 3.25 Miss Draw or awayat 1.57 Hit Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit
Derby v Middlesbrough Championship 1:0 Away winat 2.30 Miss Draw or awayat 1.36 Miss Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss Over 1.5at 1.36 Miss
Leicester v Derby Championship 2:1 Away winat 3.50 Miss Draw or awayat 1.70 Miss Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Birmingham v Derby Championship 1:1 Away winat 4.33 Miss Draw or awayat 1.91 Hit Over 2.5at 2.10 Miss Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Derby v Portsmouth Championship 1:1 Home winat 2.00 Miss Home or drawat 1.22 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Miss Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit
Sheffield Wednesday v Derby Championship 0:3 Away winat 2.30 Hit Draw or awayat 1.36 Hit Over 2.5at 2.10 Hit Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit
Derby v Millwall Championship 1:1 Away winat 3.00 Miss Draw or awayat 1.50 Hit Over 2.5at 2.50 Miss Over 1.5at 1.50 Hit
Derby v Leicester Championship 1:3 Home winat 2.75 Miss Home or drawat 1.44 Miss Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss
Middlesbrough v Derby Championship 2:1 Home winat 1.75 Hit Home or drawat 1.17 Hit Over 2.5at 2.20 Hit Over 1.5at 1.36 Hit
Swansea v Derby Championship 1:2 Drawat 3.10 Miss Draw or awayat 1.62 Hit Under 2.5at 1.57 Miss Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Derby v Watford Championship 2:3 Drawat 3.20 Miss Home or drawat 1.40 Miss Over 2.5at 2.30 Hit Over 1.5at 1.44 Hit
Blackburn v Derby Championship 1:2 Drawat 3.30 Miss Home or drawat 1.22 Miss Under 2.5at 1.57 Miss Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit
Derby v Hull City Championship 2:1 Drawat 3.25 Miss Home or drawat 1.36 Hit Under 2.5at 1.73 Miss Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit
Sheffield Utd v Derby Championship 1:3 Home winat 1.80 Miss Home or drawat 1.20 Miss Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss
Derby v QPR Championship 1:0 Away winat 2.75 Miss Draw or awayat 1.50 Miss Under 2.5at 1.73 Hit Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit
Derby v Norwich Championship 1:0 Drawat 3.25 Miss Home or drawat 1.40 Hit Under 2.5at 1.67 Hit Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit

Double chance backs two of the three results, the two our model rated most likely, so it lands more often than the result call and pays less. The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.

Derby in Championship

Championship is where Derby played most recently. We have graded 3,483 predictions in that competition, and its full record sits beside every other England competition we cover.

Championship results and our prediction record

Other Championship teams

Every team we keep a record for

Where the predictions for upcoming matches are

This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including Derby, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.

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