Primeira Liga results and our prediction record
We have published 1,854 Primeira Liga predictions since September 2020, and every one of them has been graded against the final score.
Across those matches, on the match result it was right 93 times out of 206, which is 45%; on the double chance it was right 29 times out of 34, which is 85%.
Every concluded Primeira Liga match we predicted is listed below, with the pick we made beforehand and what actually happened.
Our record in Primeira Liga
Every prediction below was published before the match kicked off and graded afterwards against the final score. Losing markets are included, and the sample size sits beside every rate.
| Market | Predictions | Correct | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | 206 | 93 | 45.1% |
| Double chance | 34 | 29 | 85.3% |
| Over or under 2.5 goals | 1,854 | 1,032 | 55.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals same call, safer line | 65 | 49 | 75.4% |
| Under 3.5 goals same call, safer line | 86 | 72 | 83.7% |
The last two rows are not separate predictions. They are the same over or under call read at a line that is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. That is why each of them covers about half the matches, and why they land higher.
How the model reads Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga matches in this archive average 2.63 goals, against 2.69 across the 57 competitions we cover. 50% of them finish with three goals or more, and the model goes over 2.5 in 36% of the matches it calls.
The home side wins 43% of Primeira Liga matches here and draws 24%. Our model picks the home side in 40% of them, which tracks the competition closely. Of the three markets we publish, double chance is where the model reads Primeira Liga best, at 85% from 34 picks, and match result is where it reads it worst, at 45% from 206.
Read at a line that is easier to clear, the same goals call lands far more often: our 65 calls of over 2.5 in Primeira Liga also cleared 1.5 goals 75% of the time, and our 86 calls of under 2.5 also stayed under 3.5 84% of the time. Those are not extra predictions. They are the one call counted against a softer question, which is why they sit roughly twenty points above the 2.5 line itself.
Every concluded Primeira Liga match we predicted
The 50 most recent of 1,854, newest first.
| Date | Match | Score | Our call | Goals call | Safer line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto v Benfica | 3:1 | Away winat 2.55 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.85 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Santa Clara v SC Braga | 0:0 | Away winat 2.10 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.53 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Estoril v Casa Pia | 1:2 | Home winat 1.73 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.90 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Guimaraes v Moreirense | 1:1 | Home winat 1.53 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.85 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Estrela v Academico Viseu | 0:2 | Home winat 2.15 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.05 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Sporting CP v Arouca | 2:2 | Home winat 1.20 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit | |
| Alverca v Rio Ave | 1:0 | Home winat 1.85 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| GIL Vicente v Maritimo | 1:1 | Drawat 3.30 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.62 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Nacional v Famalicao | 0:4 | Away winat 2.05 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.70 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| SC Braga v Estoril | 1:0 | Home winat 1.44 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.10 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.44 Hit | |
| Moreirense v Maritimo | 3:1 | Away winat 3.00 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss | |
| Rio Ave v Estrela | 3:3 | Away winat 2.50 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.90 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.33 Miss | |
| Famalicao v Sporting CP | 1:1 | Away winat 1.53 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.05 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.40 Hit | |
| Benfica v GIL Vicente | 3:1 | Home winat 1.14 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.50 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit | |
| Arouca v Santa Clara | 1:2 | Away winat 2.80 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.62 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Casa Pia v FC Porto | 1:4 | Away winat 1.25 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.75 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Nacional v Alverca | 1:3 | Away winat 2.70 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.75 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.28 Miss | |
| Estrela v SC Braga | 2:1 | Away winat 1.70 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Moreirense v Benfica | 0:4 | Away winat 1.14 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.44 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit | |
| Estoril v Arouca | 0:0 | Drawat 3.40 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.85 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Guimaraes v Casa Pia | 0:0 | Home winat 1.50 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.80 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Santa Clara v Rio Ave | 4:0 | Home winat 1.83 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.65 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss | |
| Sporting CP v Nacional | 2:0 | Home winat 1.20 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.44 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit | |
| Alverca v SC Braga | 1:2 | Away winat 1.75 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.75 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Maritimo v Benfica | 0:3 | Away winat 1.25 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.53 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Estrela v Famalicao | 2:2 | Drawat 3.20 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| FC Porto v Moreirense | 2:1 | Home winat 1.20 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.67 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Benfica v Estoril | 2:1 | Home winat 1.17 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.40 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.11 Hit | |
| SC Braga v Guimaraes | 1:0 | Home winat 1.70 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.85 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Famalicao v GIL Vicente | 0:0 | Drawat 3.10 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.62 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.22 Hit | |
| Casa Pia v Moreirense | 0:1 | Home winat 2.35 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.40 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.44 Miss | |
| Nacional v Estrela | 2:3 | Drawat 3.25 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.85 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.30 Miss | |
| Arouca v Maritimo | 2:1 | Drawat 3.25 Miss | Over 2.5at 2.08 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Alverca v Santa Clara | 1:1 | Drawat 3.10 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Rio Ave v Sporting CP | 0:4 | Away winat 1.33 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.50 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.57 Miss | |
| GIL Vicente v Casa Pia | 2:0 | Home winat 1.70 Hit | Over 2.5at 2.30 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.40 Hit | |
| FC Porto v Arouca | 2:0 | Drawat 5.75 Miss | Under 2.5at 2.30 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.50 Hit | |
| Santa Clara v Famalicao | 1:0 | Drawat 3.00 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.20 Hit | |
| Guimaraes v Nacional | 1:0 | Home winat 1.70 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.90 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.33 Hit | |
| Sporting CP v Alverca | 3:1 | Home winat 1.22 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.48 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.12 Hit | |
| Estoril v Rio Ave | 0:2 | Home winat 1.90 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.80 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Casa Pia v Benfica | 0:7 | Away winat 1.25 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.57 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.17 Hit | |
| Famalicao v Maritimo | 1:2 | Away winat 4.50 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.75 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.28 Hit | |
| Arouca v Moreirense | 4:0 | Home winat 2.10 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.70 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Nacional v Estoril | 2:0 | Away winat 2.60 Miss | Over 2.5at 1.90 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.25 Hit | |
| Rio Ave v FC Porto | 0:2 | Away winat 1.42 Hit | Under 2.5at 2.00 Hit | Under 3.5at 1.36 Hit | |
| Alverca v Estrela | 2:2 | Drawat 3.30 Hit | Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.25 Miss | |
| Sporting CP v Guimaraes | 3:2 | Home winat 1.25 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.48 Hit | Over 1.5at 1.14 Hit | |
| Santa Clara v Nacional | 2:2 | Home winat 1.91 Miss | Under 2.5at 1.67 Miss | Under 3.5at 1.22 Miss | |
| GIL Vicente v Rio Ave | 1:0 | Home winat 1.95 Hit | Over 2.5at 1.95 Miss | Over 1.5at 1.28 Miss |
The safer line is the same goals call read where it is easier to clear: a call of over 2.5 goals also clears 1.5, and a call of under 2.5 also stays under 3.5. Each price is the one quoted when we published the call.
Primeira Liga teams
Each of these has its own record, match by match.
Where the predictions for upcoming matches are
This page only shows matches that have finished, and how our call on each one turned out. The predictions we publish before kickoff, including Primeira Liga, go out every day in the Soccer Predictions app.